General disclaimer:
- This scenario has been developed by Netbeheer Nederland (NBNL) in the course of the scenario update cycle 2025. More background on the scope, methodology and underlying assumptions can be found in the published scenario report: Netbeheer Nederland Scenario’s Editie 2025 | Netbeheer Nederland
- The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators. Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.
- The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent sourced from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. For these industry sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario report.
- All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a representative demand behaviour.
- Some scenarios might not be 100% in balance and show a limited number of “blackout hours”. Knowing that the ETM has limitations concerning the modelling of market dispatch of flexible resources, this has been a conscious choice to avoid an unrealistic high level of additional flexibility resources added to the scenarios.
- The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However, specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators therefore apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market.
- The ETM dashboard might show a CO2 emission reduction which appears lower than what is shown in the scenario report. This is because the ETM also considers emissions of the international transport (which are excluded from national emission targets) and other greenhouse gas emissions must be considered as well.
Koersvaste Middenweg (KM)
This scenario outlines an energy system transition based on current market, technology & policy trends, supplemented by relevant resources like policy ambitions from the National Energy System Plan (NPE) and already known regional plans. The scenario is characterized by a strong electrification of energy consumption complemented by a mix of different other energy carriers, while renewable energy generation keeps on increasing on a relatively high level.
Energy Transition Model