This scenario is as close a representation as possible of the 2030 scenario from the Climate and Energy Outlook 2024 ‘KEV 2024’ (PBL, TNO, CBS, and RIVM).
This translation of the KEV into an ETM scenario allows for easy further development based on the KEV. For example, by:
- Determining the impact of alternative (technological) choices on the outcomes of the KEV on a national scale;
- Using the KEV scenario as the basis for municipal and provincial scenarios in the ETM.
Method
The 2030 scenario of KEV 2024 has been broadly translated into the ETM based on the KEV publication, KEV documentation (tables and graphs), and additional information provided by PBL. The following steps have been applied:
- The final demand per carrier and sector from the KEV (available in the Energy Balance 2019) was compared with the baseline situation from 2019 in the ETM to identify differences and make corrections.
- The KEV results were translated into assumptions (‘slider settings’) in the ETM to achieve the final demand per carrier and sector in 2030. Examples of this include the increase in population, rise in the number of electric cars, or the greater number of hybrid heat pumps.
- The supply side (wind, solar, etc.) was also adopted to ensure that the MW capacity matches the KEV publication (e.g., the increase in wind and solar).
Acknowledgements
We thank Paul Koutstaal and Cees Volkers from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency for the additional information on KEV 2024 and for their input in creating the KEV scenarios in the ETM.
Thanks to Netbeheer Nederland for funding. Thanks to Jan Warnaars and Pieter Boersma for their input.
More Information
For more information, please contact Dorine van der Vlies (dorine.vandervlies@quintel.com).
Energy Transition Model