General disclaimer:
- The scenarios presented here are neither an exact prediction of the future nor do they reflect the opinion of the grid operators . Instead they are intended to investigate the impact of different possible developments towards a climate neutral energy system on the energy transport infrastructures. While the developments reflected in the scenarios have been broadly aligned with different stakeholders, alternative choices or variations on certain developments are possible which can be explored in scenario variants.
- The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent taken over from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail and has been set-up in alignment with the largest industry parties in the Netherlands. The sectors being affected are chemicals, refineries, fertilizers, steel and waste. For these sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user. For more background please consult the scenario documentation (reports).
- All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a realistic demand behaviour.
- The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market in more detail and on the requested level of quality.
Scenario European Integration (EUR):
The Netherlands aim for an integrated and efficient European energy system where countries coordinate their energy policies with each other using each other’s resources. Europe is working on joint energy policy and wants to be more independent as a whole. Green gas is produced on a large scale in Europe and is therefore used in various sectors. There is solid growth of solar and wind energy combined with an increase of up to 8 GW of nuclear energy. The opportunities for wind energy in the North Sea are well utilized in cooperation with other countries around the North Sea. Industry is becoming more sustainable thanks to electrification and the use of European biomass and hydrogen, as fuel and feedstock. CCS is being applied on a large scale, including for energy generation with negative emissions (BECCS) and for the production of blue hydrogen. CO2 from surrounding countries is also stored in the Netherlands. District-by-district planning is central to making the built environment more sustainable, and there is strong direction on the development of supra-regional heat networks. The combination of heat networks and hybrid heat supply in buildings gives a moderate electricity peak demand. A European network of charging infrastructure and expansion of the HSL network provide far-reaching electrification of mobility.
Energy Transition Model