General disclaimer:
- This scenario has been developed by Netbeheer Nederland (NBNL). More background on the scope, methodology and underlying assumptions can be found in the published documentation on the NBNL webpage.
- This scenario is neither an exact prediction of the future nor does it reflect the opinion of the grid operators. Instead it is intended to investigate an alternative pathway where current trends play a bigger role and the climate & energy targets are not fully achieved. Alternative choices or variations are possible which can be further explored in scenario variants.
- The scenario assumptions for the industry sector are to a large extent sourced from the Carbon Transition Model (CTM) which models industrial processes in high detail. For these industry sectors, final energy demands are shown in ETM but the underlying inputs and assumptions cannot be changed by the user.
- All weather dependent profiles follow the climate pattern of the historic climate year 2012 covering different combinations of supply & demand. Accordingly, for this study climate data (e.g. temperature, irradiation, wind profiles) from the Pan European Climate Database (PECD) has been processed and uploaded to the ETM. In addition, specific sectoral demand profiles have been derived from suitable (public) sources to reflect a representative demand behaviour.
- The scenario might not be 100% in balance and show a limited number of “blackout hours”. Knowing that the ETM has limitations concerning the modelling of market dispatch of flexible resources, this has been a conscious choice to avoid an unrealistic high level of additional flexibility resources added to the scenarios.
- The ETM is an energy system model covering all relevant energy carriers and end-user sectors for the aim of modelling how energy is being used under different scenarios and to estimate the impact on relevant energy & climate indicators like energy related emissions. However, specific aspects like the electricity market, energy exchanges with surrounding countries, the characteristics and the operation of technologies are modelled in a simplified way for the sake of reducing complexity, keeping calculation times low and ensure as much transparency & accessibility to users as possible. Depending on the study and scope, the grid operators therefore apply other more advanced tools e.g. to simulate the European electricity market.
- Note that most of the cost parameters (e.g. CAPEX / OPEX) have not actively been adjusted in ETM compared to the default values, since cost impact analyses were not explicitly in scope of the scenario quantification process. To draw any conclusions about the cost impact of the scenarios, additional assumptions must be made by the user.
Verkenning Vertraagde Transitie (VT)
This scenario outlines an energy system transition based on current market, technology & policy trends. While the scenario foresees an ongoing transition with more renewable energy sources, electrification of energy consumption complemented by a mix of different other energy carriers and the market entry of new flexibility resources, the use of fossil energy remains at a relatively high level. Other than the regular NBNL scenarios, climate & energy targets are therefore not fully achieved.
Energy Transition Model